# Opinion: landlords are being tightened twice, and renters will pay for both > The RBA says the investor tax changes are doing some of its work. If rates also rise on 3 November, small landlords carry both, and renters pay. - Published: 1 November 2026 - Section: Opinion - Author: Landlord Weekly Editorial Team - URL: https://www.landlordweekly.com/articles/landlords-tightened-twice-rate-rises-and-tax *This is an opinion piece. It is the view of the Landlord Weekly editorial team, who are landlords who self-manage. The figures are sourced; the argument is ours.* If the Reserve Bank lifts the cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, as the four big banks expect, small landlords will have been tightened twice in six months: once by the Budget's tax changes and once by the cash rate. The RBA has said as much about the first. We think that is worth saying out loud, because the people who pay for it in the end are not landlords alone. ## The RBA has counted the tax changes On 19 October, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent was asked whether the housing tax changes had already done much of the Bank's work. He [answered](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-ag-2026-10-19.html) that it was "moving in the same direction as monetary policy." He described the fall in investor credit as "one of the larger moves in recent tightening phases", and said it was "no doubt down to the effects of the tax changes." The data agree. The ABS [recorded](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/jun-quarter-2026) 52,599 new investor loan commitments in the June quarter, down 8.6% in number and 10.2% in value. [PropTrack](https://rea3.irmau.com/site/pdf/8fac9c2a-0edb-4229-93cd-59f580f31bc7/Platform/ListPage/PropTrack-Terri-Scheer-Investor-Report-2026.pdf) found investor loans fell 9% against 3% for owner-occupiers. Our argument is simple. A tax policy was designed for housing reasons. It is now being counted as part of an inflation fight. If that counts for anything, it should count in the decision on Tuesday. ## What the other side gets right Inflation is a real problem. The ABS says the CPI [rose 4.3%](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-43-year-september-2026) in the year to September, and housing was the largest contributor at 5.2%. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said high inflation is "a gut punch" for renters on low incomes, and that [15 per cent of renters](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-10-21.html) are in negative cash flow. Nobody who owns a rental should wave that away. The tax changes also have a defensible logic. Negative gearing on established homes bought after Budget night will end from 1 July 2027, while new builds keep it. Reasonable people can think that is a fair way to steer investment towards new supply. Many landlords will disagree, but the aim is not unreasonable. ## Where we disagree First, the two tools are not coordinated. The RBA is entitled to count what the Treasury has done, but the Board has no say in how it lands. A leveraged landlord with one or two properties is exposed to the cash rate, to the loss of deductions on any established home bought after 12 May, and to land tax, insurance and rates that the ABS says are rising faster than rents. Second, the cost does not stay with the landlord. SQM's asking rents are [up 7.3%](https://sqmresearch.com.au/property/weekly-rents?t=1&national=1) on a year ago. When fewer people buy investment property, and some of those who hold it sell, the pool of rentals tightens. Renters are the people with the least room to absorb that. We would rather say it plainly than pretend a landlord who sells is a villain and a tenant who loses a home is a statistic. Third, rate rises are blunt. Whatever the RBA decides on Tuesday, a landlord with a good tenant and a 7.0% loan has no way of passing it on in full without risking the tenancy. Most of us will absorb it. That is not a sustainable plan for the long run. ## A rise may still be the right call We are not arguing that the Board should hold because landlords are hurting. With inflation at 4.3% and the trimmed mean at 3.6%, a hold carries its own risks, and a Board that lets expectations drift would eventually cost everyone more, tenants included. Our point is narrower. The Board is weighing a cash rate decision against a tax change that is already pulling in the same direction, and the people carrying both should be named in that weighing. There is also a timing point. Most of the tax changes do not start until 1 July 2027, yet investor lending has already moved. That tells us behaviour is changing well ahead of the law. A landlord deciding today whether to buy another property, renovate or sell is reacting to what is announced, not only to what is in force. ## What we would like to see - **Say what the combined effect is.** If the RBA and Treasury both count the tax changes as tightening, they should publish how much, so households can plan. - **Keep the tax rules stable.** The new-build definition has not been settled. Investors need to know it before they commit. - **Do not stack more on landlords.** If rates rise again, state governments should think hard before adding charges that cannot be passed on without lifting rents. - **Support renters directly.** If the concern is renters in negative cash flow, help them directly through payments such as Commonwealth Rent Assistance rather than hoping landlords will absorb the cost. ## What this means for landlords Run your numbers at 7.0% before Tuesday. Keep a cash buffer. Hold on to good tenants. And if you are weighing a sale, remember that gains up to 1 July 2027 keep the 50% discount whenever you sell, as we explain in our guide to [the CGT changes](https://www.landlordweekly.com/articles/cgt-changes-landlords-2026). We have been landlords through rate rises before. A fair system does not ask the same group to carry two tightening policies at once and then be surprised when rentals get scarcer. ## Frequently asked questions ### Did the RBA say the investor tax changes are helping to tighten policy? Assistant Governor Christopher Kent, asked on 19 October whether the housing tax changes had already done much of the RBA's work, said it was 'moving in the same direction as monetary policy'. He also said the fall in investor credit was 'no doubt down to the effects of the tax changes'. ### How much have investor loans fallen? The ABS recorded 52,599 new investor loan commitments in the June quarter 2026, down 8.6% in number and 10.2% in value on the March quarter. The ABS lending indicators for the September quarter are due on 11 November. ## Sources - [RBA: Fireside chat by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), at the Commonwealth Bank's Global Markets Conference (19 October 2026)](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-ag-2026-10-19.html) - [RBA: Fireside chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, at Citi's Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference (21 October 2026)](https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-dg-2026-10-21.html) - [ABS: CPI rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026 (28 October 2026)](https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-43-year-september-2026) - [ABS: Lending indicators, June quarter 2026](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/lending-indicators/jun-quarter-2026) - [PropTrack and Terri Scheer: Investor Report 2026](https://rea3.irmau.com/site/pdf/8fac9c2a-0edb-4229-93cd-59f580f31bc7/Platform/ListPage/PropTrack-Terri-Scheer-Investor-Report-2026.pdf) - [SQM Research: Weekly rents, national, week ending 28 October 2026](https://sqmresearch.com.au/property/weekly-rents?t=1&national=1) --- *General information only, not financial, legal or tax advice. Source: Landlord Weekly, https://www.landlordweekly.com/articles/landlords-tightened-twice-rate-rises-and-tax*